Water GenbuTier 2
at 3/29 大圖盃台中預賽
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-3-2
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1349
· median 1349
· range 1269–1429
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1175
Q3 1362
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
